1. The main theme for the Toronto Summit will be “Recovery and New Beginnings”. The Summit participants will assess the implementation of the Pittsburgh Declaration, the G20 programme document adopted at the previous summit on September 24–25, 2009. Based on this assessment, the participants will make decisions on further coordinated steps aimed at ensuring that the global economic recovery is sustainable, and negotiate measures on further realisation of the Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth. In the context of developing exit strategies, it is vital for all G20 countries to implement the Framework. Its successful realisation will depend, among other factors, on each country's confidence that its actions will be followed by relevant steps of other parties.
2. The G20 Summit will take place at a time of nascent recovery of the global economy from the worst economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The crisis cost the world dearly. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), developed countries spent on average 2.7% of their GDP on support for the economy in 2008 and 2009. At the same time spending in a wider sense, necessitated by the impact of the crisis on the economy, as well as social and financial sectors approached 27% of the GDP in developed countries.
The Toronto Summit will take place against the background of conflicting trends in global financial and economic development. The global economy is recovering faster than had been anticipated, but it remains unstable and vulnerable to various risks.
The discussion on global economy will be centred on IMF's report prepared specially for the Summit on the progress in the recovery of the global economy from the crisis, with an optimistic and a pessimistic forecast for the future. The Summit will adopt joint Leaders’ Statement and a number of annexes to it (on the realisation of the Framework, the reform of international financial institutions and the reform of financial regulatory systems). It is expected that the Summit’s goal will be defining current obstacles to global growth and reasons why the nascent recovery of the global economy has not reached a sustainable growth trajectory.
Finance ministers and central banks governors of the G20 countries, who met on April 23, 2010 in Washington, D.C., noted that the recovery of the global economy was proceeding at different rates, although faster than had been anticipated earlier. The IMF forecast has been changed from 4% to 4.2% for 2010 and to 4.3% in 2011.
Emerging markets have been the driving force behind the growth, whereas in developed countries growth has been mainly achieved through government spending. The risks that still remain in the economy are caused by significant levels of budget deficit and sovereign debt in developed countries, high unemployment rates and a tendency towards an increase in global imbalances. At the same time sovereign risks (such as in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy) may affect the financial sector, which will jeopardise the nascent recovery of the global economy and greatly lower the macroeconomic indicators forecast by the G20. Therefore, the recapitalisation of the banking system remains necessary.
In particular, finance ministries of the G20 countries endorsed bank support measures until such a time as private demand strengthens, as long as government finances remain steady. They nevertheless admitted that the economic situation remains unstable and depends to a great extent on the countries' ability to complete the anti-crisis measures in the next three years.
There are some differences of opinion regarding when government support for the economy should cease but everyone agrees that the exit strategy should be considered already now. It is vital that the exit strategy is implemented simultaneously by all the leading global economies. The coordination of macroeconomic policy in the post-crisis period will ensure sustainable growth of the global economy and will help to avoid new imbalances.
The meeting of the G20 finance ministers and governors of central banks focused in particular on the analysis of the first results of mutual evaluation stipulated in the G20 Framework signed in Pittsburgh. The IMF report on basic trends in the development of the global economy was based on the data submitted by the G20 countries.
3. Russia will come to the Toronto Summit with a number of achievements in implementing the national Anti-Crisis Strategy and commitments undertaken as part of the Pittsburgh Declaration.
A comparison of the situation today with the state of the Russian economy in 2009 testifies to the effectiveness of the Government's anti-crisis measures.
Last year the GDP in Russia fell by 7.9%, which was greater than in other G8 countries. Industrial output decreased by 10.8%. Prices of Russia's main export products dropped dramatically: oil fell by 40%, gas by 30% and ferrous metals by 43%.
But if in the past external shocks set Russia back for many years, this time the country showed that it was prepared better than ever before.
The onset of the crisis followed almost 10 years of uninterrupted economic growth. There were also significant changes in the character of the Russian economy. The financial sector, industry and social sphere became more efficient and stable. Most importantly, the Russian leadership took resolute and active steps in the face of the crisis.
In 2009, the Russian Government implemented an unprecedented Anti-Crisis Programme. It was financed through funding from the federal budget, the National Welfare Fund, Central Bank resources and state guarantees worth 3 trillion rubles (over $100 billion). 2.8 million people received help through job creation programmes. The Government focused on increasing the stability of the banking sector. Over 687 billion rubles, which came from temporarily available public funds, were deposited in accounts at private banks. The money was repaid by May 2010. The Russian stock market became a world leader in terms of recovery rate. Although it fell to a greater extent than stock markets in other countries, its recovery is progressing at a faster pace.
The Russian economic modernisation programme is an important stimulus for taking the economic growth to a new quality level. Its aim is to encourage in every possible way the creation and development in Russia of high-tech production and research centres.
The Government’s energetic and goal-oriented financial and economic policy made it possible to change the course of events and accelerate the recovery of the Russian economy. In the first quarter of 2010 growth was 4.5% compared to last year and industrial output was up 5.8%. The World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development revised their forecasts for the growth of the Russian economy to 4.9–5.5% of GDP this year.
Thus, Russia has successfully fulfilled its key commitment to conduct effective anti-crisis policy, which was undertaken by the G20 countries at previous summits.
In addition, Russia is taking decisive steps to implement the decisions adopted at the Pittsburgh Summit to increase the regulation of financial markets, improve their transparency and reduce risks for their participants.
The Government and the Central Bank are implementing the following measures:
- setting new (more stringent) requirements for bank capital and reducing procyclicality of the regulating system. In order to realise the international approaches to the regulation of banking risks, the Bank of Russia has issued regulations aimed at reaching the objectives set out in the first part of the International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards (Basel II) by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS), which will come into effect on July 1, 2010;
- tightening accounting standards. From January 1, 2011, companies publishing their financial accounts will have to use International Accounting Standards (IAS), which will replace the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). The State Duma is debating a bill On Consolidated Financial Accountability, which stipulates the establishment of a legislative basis for the implementation of IAS in Russia;
- perfecting the mechanisms through which credit organisations can disclose information on their activity to a wide circle of interested parties. Full disclosure of specified information in line with IAS requires legislative regulation. For this purpose the draft Federal Law On Introducing Amendments to Federal Laws On Banks and Banking Activities and On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) has been prepared. It specifies the requirements for credit organisations, banks and holdings to disclose information on their activity to a wide circle of interested parties.
4. Taking into account the above trends in the development of the global financial and economic situation, the discussion at the Toronto Summit will most probably centre on the issue of financial consolidation and ensuring the stability of state finances in the countries that have a significant budget deficit. The key problem here is to find a balance between ensuring global growth and implementing an efficient and timely fiscal consolidation in developed countries.
At present there is no unity in approaches to this issue among the G20. Russia, along with its BRIC partners and a number of European countries strongly believes in the need for fiscal consolidation, implementing structural reforms, cutting budget deficits and reducing the threat of further growth of national debts. We support the development of a common international policy for the G20, based on accepted standards and aimed at efficient management of public finances. Russia put forward this initiative at a meeting of G8 finance ministers, when Russia held the G8 presidency in 2006.
5. The discussion on the progress in reforming international financial institutions (IFIs) will have an important place at the Summit.
A meeting of the IMF International Monetary and Financial Committee and the World Bank Development Committee took place in Washington, D.C. on April 24–25. It was decided to prepare a package of IMF reform measures to be considered by the summit in South Korea in November. Significant differences remain on the reform and the quota distribution mechanism. The expansion of the fund's mandate and provision of additional resources to the IMF depend on the solution of this problem.
The Development Committee’s efforts made it possible to adopt the World Bank's post-crisis strategy. It includes creating conditions for economic growth through investment in infrastructure, strengthening the countries' anti-crisis stability, and implementing measures to counter global challenges. This plan is supported by serious reforms of the internal structure and management.
Without receiving additional capital infusions, the World Bank increased levels of funding four-fold, which reached $100 billion since the beginning of the crisis. After the meeting, the shareholders approved a general increase in IBRD capital by $58 billion, of which $3.5 billion is to be contributed by member countries. Russia's share is $100 million, which as to be paid within five years.
The final decision was to adopt a compromise scheme for the redistribution of the IBRD share capital. Developing countries and transition economies increased their share of votes to 47.1%, which is by more than 3%, as agreed at the Pittsburgh Summit. At the same time the share of some G20 countries decreased. The BRIC countries received additional shares in the bank's capital. China's share increased from 2.77% to 4.42%, Brazil's share grew from 2.06% to 2.24%, and India's share increased from 2.77% to 2.97%.
Russia retains its share of 2.77%, which requires its participation in a selective replenishment of the bank's capital by $48.1 million. In addition, Russia's contribution to the 16th replenishment of the International Development Association will increase from 70 million to 105 million SDRs ($165 million) at the least, which will have to be paid within nine years.
The share of Russia's votes (3.38%) in the International Finance Corporation has been retained as well. Our share in IFC's selective capital increase is $9.8 million.
Therefore, we can conclude that Russia has fulfilled its obligations related to the World Bank reform initiated by the G20 leaders.
6. The Toronto Summit is expected to continue the discussion on the expediency of introducing an additional tax (fee) on bank transactions.
A number of countries, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States have already introduced or are planning to introduce taxes and fees that will compensate the expenses incurred in future crises. Some proposals stipulate accumulation of the money obtained from taxes in special funds, while others suggest they should be added to government revenues.
The idea of introducing a global tax on financial transactions (banking tax) is not supported by at least half of G20 members, including the United Kingdom, Canada and major developing countries. This idea is absolutely unacceptable for Russia because it contradicts the idea behind creating an International Financial Centre and the tax reform strategy in general, which involves eliminating unnecessary tax barriers.
The introduction of a tax on banking transactions will force the banks to transfer this additional burden onto their customers; as a result, the costs of financial services and loans will go up, especially for individuals.
The idea of the additional tax is supported in the countries whose banking systems suffered the most during the crisis and is dictated by their desire to avoid reforming the banking system while seeking voter support.
As an alternative, it has been proposed to impose various additional taxes on the financial sector, such as insurance fees for special stabilisation funds; however, this option also lacks consensus. If a tax is imposed on certain banking transactions or products, the banks will begin to conceal them and conduct them as off-the-books operations.
7. Another issue to be discussed at the Summit will be the implementation of the Pittsburgh decision to reduce ineffective subsidies to the energy sector. The general understanding is that at this stage it is important to define basic concepts and to develop a classification of energy subsidies, as well as criteria for evaluating their effectiveness or ineffectiveness. It will be up to individual countries to decide on the speed, the timeframe, methods and instruments for realising this initiative. They will also bear individual responsibility for its success.
It is also anticipated that a decision will be made to join the efforts of the G20 countries in fighting corruption.
8. At the Toronto Summit, as at other meetings of the G20, Russia will hold a common or similar position to its BRIC partners. This kind of cooperation within the G20 has already become one of the priorities of the emerging strategic partnership between the members of the G4.
9. During its presidency of the group, Canada has conducted a number of meetings in the outreach format, whose purpose was to consult Asian, African and European countries that are not members of the G20 on various issues on the agenda of the Toronto Summit. This was done to add weight to the decisions adopted by the G20. In addition, a meeting with civil societies of the G20 will be held in the run-up to the Summit, and a meeting with representatives of the business community will take place on the sidelines of the Summit.
One of the key organisational matters of the G20 is the issue of the rotating presidency. Russia stands a good chance of holding the G20 presidency in the next four years.